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Political. The Chinese believe, rightly or wrongly, that the patrol craft will remain in Hong Kong. It will send a
bad signal to Peking about our commitment to Hong Kong if
they have to be withdrawn. Would be seen there and in Hong Kong as signalling a diminution of our resolve to
continue to administer Hong Kong to 1997.
open up questions about our plans for the military garrison
(due for review in 1992: Governor and the Commander of the
British Forces in Hong Kong (CBF) convinced we must stay
stronger for longer).
This would also
Military. Both the Governor and the CBF are concerned
that there should be sufficient backup for the Marine Police
during run-up to 1997.
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The Chinese threat is real.
Witness incursions last
Spring and reinforced rules of engagement as a result.
History of the 80s underlines folly of signalling a lowering
of our guard in this way (Falklands: HMS Endurance).
Withdrawal now will add to the pressures for greather
military strength in future. Recall recent JIC assessment. Post-Tiananmen Square quite new considerations apply.
Military and political risks are too great to be
dismissed so casually. Proper Ministerial discussion needed
before decisions are taken.
A16ABN
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