SECRET UK EYES A
lead to the supply of arms and perhaps military technical assistance. There would be sound practical advantages, in that trade between the two is generally very heavily weighted in Argentina's favour with its substantial grain sales to the Soviet Union. Argentina's fiercely anti-Communist sentiment, which has precluded a warm relationship with the USSR up to now, may be assuaged by new-style, less ideological approaches
from Moscow.
19.
Southern Africa is an area where the Soviet profile is likely to be lower than at present, with its encouragement to client states to resolve their domestic problems by negotiation and its substantial reduction in military and economic aid to the region. Soviet moves in South and East Asia are likely to be limited by the emerging influences of India, China and Japan, and by having little to offer the countries of the region. They are very unlikely materially to
affect UK interests.
THREAT TO THE UK BASE FROM OOA BEYOND 2000
20. The proliferation of ballistic missile capabilities in the Third World will, if unchecked, lead to a situation where
the United Kingdom could find itself within range of such a weapon from an unfriendly quarter. It is worth noting in this context that the distance from London to a part of Libya from which a ballistic missile might be launched is only 1,500 miles. The development of a CW warhead for such a missile might well be within the capability of certain Mediterranean countries before the end of the period, but the development and deployment of missiles with nuclear warheads capable of striking the UK from 00A is less likely. The political impact of a threatened attack by an HE warhead on a population centre
should not be underestimated.
21. The threat to the UK base (and our European Allies) from international terrorism is unlikely to diminish significantly during the period. It is not realistic to be sanguine about the prospects for a settlement of the Palestinian issue at present. The future course of the Islamic fundamentalist
and.2s1
D-9
UK EYES A SECRET