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16. The Soviet leadership is likely to continue fashioning its foreign policy largely with a view to creating a favourable environment for its overriding priority of domestic economic and political reform. Having extricated itself from an untenable position in Afghanistan and at the same time being closely involved in encouraging the current moves towards the settlement of conflicts in Cambodia, Angola/Namibia and to a lesser extent in Ethiopia, it seems unlikely that the Soviet Union will in future identify closely with, and give substantial aid to, Communist-sympathising regimes who find themselves embattled. Indeed, the policy of concentrating so much political, military and economic investment on its so-called "special friends" will undoubtedly be severely diluted. Instead, we expect the Russians gradually to widen the scope of their links with Third World
countries to embrace a far greater number of "moderate" and
even decidedly anti-Communist states eg in the Middle East,
ASEAN and Latin America.
17. Moscow will continue to depend on arms transfers as one of its primary sources of hard currency revenues. Although Soviet relationships with radical Arab states such as Libya and Syria are likely to be downgraded as relations with more moderate states in the area improve, economic imperatives may encourage the Soviet Union to continue supplying arms.
18. To the extent that the Soviet Union seems very likely to adopt rather more sophisticated, less ideologically-based, policies in the Third World, Moscow will be a more effective competitor for influence. There may, however, be few areas where Russian moves impinge on United Kingdom interests directly, and detrimentally. If overall Soviet political support for Cuba declines (as the economic relationship shows signs of doing) the Union will have an even more restricted role in the Caribbean, and certainly none to affect our particular concerns. There is some prospect of the Soviet Union establishing closer relations with Argentina which could
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