AFRICA
SECRET
UK EYES A
12.
The countries of Sub-Saharan Africa are extremely unstable internally and this condition is unlikely to change. in the period under review. Instability arises from poverty and rapidly increasing population whose growth rate frequently exceeds the potential for economic growth even under competent adminstration; also from tribal and religious differences and a propensity to seek solutions to problems through extreme political or religious philosophies. In many countries, where the ruling group depends on military power rather than tribal majority to sustain its position, there have been dramatic changes in recent months. withdrawal of external support, in particular Soviet support, has led to the collapse of a number of regimes while others have introduced more representational forms of government in an effort to manage the transition to a new political structure. South Africa is following the same path. It remains to be seen whether these developments will produce better administration and greater prosperity.
13. In foreign relations, despite much third World and post- colonial rhetoric, a mixture of self interest and military weakness disposes African countries to seek to avoid war with their neighbours although they may offer assistance to rival factions. The military capabilities of the various Black African countries are likely to remain limited and unsophisticated. Political change in South Africa will initially be welcomed by its neighbours but the inherent regional predominance of this large and powerful state may well lead to renewed tension, even under black government, before the period under review.
INDIAN SUB-CONTINENT
14. A continuing high level of investment by India in its armed forces, including a developing long-range intervention capability and a ballistic missile system, including perhaps an ICBM by 2015 as well as a small nuclear arsenal, suggests
and.2s1
D-6
UK EYES A SECRET