SECRET
UK EYES A
ANNEX D TO
D/ACDS (CONCEPTS)108/5 DATED
OCT 91
THE THREATS TO UK OOA INTERESTS
-
2000 AND BEYOND
GLOBAL PATTERN
1.
-
The United Kingdom's OOA commitments and other areas of
national interest are presently found in almost every corner of the globe, stretching from the central and southern zones of the Americas, through the Mediterranean and the Gulf, to
the Far East. The overall pattern of our global defence
interest is not likely to be altered radically by 2015, despite the pull-out from Hong Kong and probably Belize - which will have occurred by then. A hitherto neglected corner
- viz Antarctica may have become an additional focus of
attention. In the paragraphs below, we assess political and military development in the various countries and regions of interest in the period up to 2015, and the probable implications for the United Kingdom's defence commitments. also assess the likely pattern of Soviet activities 00A in the timeframe and the extent to which these might impinge on UK interests. Finally, the threat to the UK base itself from 00A
is considered.
We
THE CARIBBEAN
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 2000
2. The stability of the Caribbean will continue to be underwritten by the USA. Left-wing extremists will probably continue to receive sponsorship from countries such as Libya, but are unlikely to challenge democracy seriously in the region. The drugs problem will grow with its associated corruption, giving an ever-present potential for unrest and possible need for direct UK involvement in one or other of the
and.2s1
D-1
UK EYES A SECRET