CONFIDENTIAL
APPENDIX 5 TO
ANNEX B TO
D/ACDS (CONCEPTS) 108/5 DATED
OCT 91
DEFENCE EXPORT MARKET 2000 AND BEYOND
WORLD DEFENCE EXPORT MARKET SIZE
1. The world total defence export market is not expected to have expanded singificantly above $50 billion annually at 1989 prices by the year 2000, the small rise occurring as a result of the time position in most nations re-equipment cycle, offset by a reduced general threat perception and economic constraints imposed on individual nations. Although there may be a positive shift in resources allocated to defence by OOA nations, this will be balanced out by a negative movement in
the developed world.
GEOGRAPHIC TRENDS
2.
In regional terms, the current level of funds will continue to be allocated by countries in Africa, and along with Latin America the economic pressures of the eighties are. likely to become a permanent part of the economic landscape. Overall these two areas are unlikely to account for more than 15% of the export market in the OOA region.
3. In the Middle East, the continuation of the relatively static position is likely to continue, as the area reaches saturation level with regard to its capacity to acquire and operate new items. In general, the increased industrial- isation will allow many countries to design and build many of their own products, but they will still rely upon the developed world for many of their more sophisticated items and perhaps more particularly for training. This region will
account for about 40% of OOA sales.
apb5.2s1
B5-1
CONFIDENTIAL