SECRET UK EYES A
become involved) is likely to be one of small-scale training assistance, complementing the more substantial US efforts in
the area. Burden-sharing and the existence of UK dependencies will also be considerations in the UK's security relations with some S American states. In capability terms, Argentina could have developed a ballistic missile capable of bombarding the Falkland Islands, and both she and Brazil could have
developed nuclear warheads (18). The latter has the potential to become a considerable regional power but, the Falklands sovereignty issue aside, it is unlikely that S American national disputes will be exported beyond the sub-continent, except perhaps to Antarctica. In this context it is relevant that both Argentina and Chile lay overlapping claims to parts of the British Antarctic Territory, illustrated at Appendix 6.
These may become a security problem if the Antarctic loses its internationally agreed demilitarised status.
Appendices:
1. British Military Operations Out of Area Since 1945
(Summary).
2. Probable British Dependent Territories - 2000.
Discovered Recoverable Oil Reserves and Cumulative production Since 1975.
3.
4.
Strategic Minerals.
5. Defence Export Market 2000-2015.
6.
Antarctica.
18JIC (89)3.
anb.2s1
B-13 UK EYES A
SECRET