SECRET
UK EYES A
indigenous nuclear warhead by 2015, other countries might acquire such systems from another source. CBW capabilities will exist in the region (16) (17). The area will thus be one of major strategic concern to the UK.
21. Sub-Saharan Africa. Poverty will be prevalent in Black Africa also and the African states will be generally preoccupied with their internal problems. These may include the problem of general over-population co-existing with an under-representation amongst the productive age groups, as a result of AIDS. Thus in military terms they will present little threat to anybody but themselves, and in economic terms will need their markets in the West more than the West will need their products. South Africa will retain her position as the dominant regional power and may underpin her military strength with CW and nuclear weapons. In these circumstances, the UK is likely to maintain an interest in encouraging peaceful change as a way to fostering long-term stability in the area, which may involve both military assistance and peacekeeping.
22. The Caribbean Basin. This region will be dominated by the US. Britain's involvement is therefore likely to be confined basically to discharging the UK's commitments to its residual dependencies, and with furthering wider strategic objectives by such means as burden-sharing. Security concerns seem likely to centre round the problems created by poverty, political instability and large-scale organised crime associated with drug-trafficking. On current trends, the latter may well require a coordinated international security
response.
23. S America and the S Atlantic. Stability in certain s American countries will depend to a large extent on their governments having the capacity and willpower to contain the threat from narco-terrorism; the UK's role (where we decide to
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16 JIC (89) 4 17JIC (89)3.
anb.2s1
B-12
UK EYES A
SECRET