SECRET
UK EYES A
and regard her nuclear testing area in the Pacific and space-
launch facilities in French Guiana as vital national
interests. She plans to retain her military presence in Djibouti for the foreseeable future to support her Indian Ocean and Far Eastern commitments. The Netherlands may well still have responsibilities in the Caribbean and Spain her North African enclaves. Belgium has links with Central Africa, while Greece and Italy have security concerns in the Mediterranean area. Germany (probably largely pre-occupied with the consequences of the the collapse of Soviet Communism in Eastern Europe) is likely to remain both the EC's industrial centre of gravity and its most reticent member in terms of military activity OOA. However, this inhibition was originally imposed by circumstances rather than inspired by some higher national wisdom, and if the political mood changed a differing interpretation could be made of the Federal Basic
Law to allow OOA deployments by the Bundeswehr. Notes on relevant European military capabilities are at Annex C.
14. NATO. The North Atlantic Treaty defines the area within which it is operative and NATO's structure and strategy have evolved to deter and defend specifically against the Warsaw Pact. A defensive military alliance is essentially reactive in nature, and when it is composed of a number of sovereign nations it is always liable to be out-manoeuvred politically by an adroit opponent. These factors combine to suggest that NATO will seek to keep change to a manageable minimum and will not extend formally its area of operation. However, the Alliance is increasingly aware of the potential impact on it of events O0A, and will develop the mechanisms designed to facilitate such deployments by member-nations when they are seen to be in the interests of all, while the interoperability and habit of cooperation developed within the Alliance offer potential benefits OOA.
15. The WEU. The WEU will provide a European forum wherein the members, who will possibly include Greece and Turkey, can confer on matters of security. The WEU rests on the modified Brussels Treaty and under its terms constitutes a formal
anb.2s1
B-9
UK EYES A SECRET