SECRET UK EYES A
activities will be constrained by budgetary considerations and there is likely to have been a trimming of commitments, including the forward basing of men and material. In the Pacific area, American forces may well have been withdrawn from the Philippines, Korea and Japan, and US military power projection in the Far East and Indian Ocean regions will depend primarily on maritime and air assets. US governments will continue to take a proprietary interest in events in the Americas, but are likely to be selective in their application of military power and assistance. American forces will remain in Europe and the US strategic nuclear guarantee will underpin NATO strategy, but the US will probably continue to see its political and security interests as essentially world-wide and to look to its Allies to share the load. This is likely to include inviting military co-operation OOA when an ally is judged able to provide an expertise or capability which the US lacks, or when the US deems co-operation politically preferable to unilateral action.
12. Potential Superpowers. Japan will be an economic superpower but will probably rest content with the power and influence which this will give her (9). She can expect a per-capita income on a par with that of the US, with a GDP approaching 50% of the American figure (10) Her banks will probably be more influential in international financial affairs than US ones, and her current investments in education portend the best educated work force in the world. She will prefer to remain under the US security umbrella and has consequently been willing to contribute substantially to the cost of US forces stationed in Japan. However, if American presence and influence in the region were to wane, she would probably endeavour to fill the gap with her economic and political influence ("). Japan fears the development of protectionist blocs in America and Europe, and will seek to guard against them by creating her own zone of economic
JIC (88)19 10JIC (88) 19. 11JIC (88) 19.
Japan: Towards the Year 2000.
anb.2s1
B-7
UK EYES A
SECRET