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disruption of supply. They are chromium, found almost exclusively in South Africa, Zimbabwe and the USSR; manganese and vanadium, of which South Africa and the Soviet Union are
again the major producers. Judicious stockpiling and rates of consumption mean that lack of access to these minerals would not be immediately catastrophic, but after some months the consequences for industry would become severe. Other Western countries would be affected similarly.
8.
Trade and Investment. The prevailing UK pattern of trade comprises an adverse balance of visible trade with most parts of the developed world, a small favourable balance of visible trade with the developing world, and a favourable balance of
invisible trade worldwide. Within this pattern, about 75% of the visible trade is expected to remain with the EC, the rest of Western Europe and North America, with no single country accounting for more than 15% of total imports or exports. This latter diversity, while reducing to some extent the British economy's vulnerability to disruption of the trade flow to or from any particular country, implies also that the UK requires to be active in a wide variety of markets, none of which it can afford to ignore. The pattern of outward direct investment is likely to remain similarly diversified, with a concentration on the United States, the Pacific region and
Western Europe.
9. Defence Exports. The world market for defence exports is unlikely to change significantly in real value terms from today's levels, but the element accounted for by OOA nations is expected to increase to about 80% of the total. If present policies are maintained the UK is expected to maintain its share of the OOA market, even allowing for an increasing number of sophisticated third-world suppliers, as collaborative links on an industry-to-industry basis expand, particularly between the UK, the Middle East and Asia. The UK currently enjoys a strong position as a platform supplier, and as the most important supplier of electronic and equipment systems, which will be the area of the highest potential
growth rate over the period.
Details are at Appendix 5. Such
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