CONFIDENTIAL
31B
1513
MDLOAN 8873
WE SHOULD PLAY THE ISSUE DOWN IN PUBLIC. WE NEED TO AVOID
FEEDING CHINESE PARANOIA AND TO GO ON MAKING CLEAR TO THEM THAT WE INTEND TO STICK TO OUR PROCEDURAL AGREEMENT WITH THEM, IE. TO DRAFT THE LEGISLATION AND THEN TO CONSULT THEM. ON THE OTHER HAND WE SHOULD NOT GIVE THE IMPRESSION IN PUBLIC THAT WE ARE CONTINUING REGARDLESS OF LEGCO'S VIEWS. WE SHALL NEED TO BE IN A POSITION TO SAY THAT AT JLG XXI IN EARLY DECEMBER WE RAISED THE PROBLEM INFORMALLY WITH THE CHINESE SIDE AND EXPLAINED THE REALITIES OF LEGCO'S ROLE IN PASSING THE NECESSARY LEGISLATION.
MEANWHILE WORK SHOULD PROCEED ON THE DRAFT LEGISLATION. WE
SHOULD SEEK TO REGAIN THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LEGAL AND BUSINESS COMMUNITIES AND LEGCO BY DISCUSSING THE KEY PROVISIONS OF THE LEGISLATION WITH THEM INFORMALLY, EVEN BEFORE CONSULTING THE CHINESE:
AFTER THAT, WE SHOULD CONSULT THE CHINESE AS AGREED.
AT THE END OF THIS PROCESS, IE. IN 6 TO 9 MONTHS WE SHOULD TAKE STOCK OF OUR CHANCES OF GETTING LEGISLATION THROUGH LEGCO. IF THE CHANCES THEN STILL LOOK BAD, MINISTERS' CURRENT VIEW IS THAT THE BEST COURSE WILL PROBABLY BE TO PUT THE ISSUE ON ICE UNTIL MUCH NEARER 1997, SINCE OTHER OPTIONS WOULD ALL INVOLVE DISCONTINUITY IN 1997 AND COULD WELL UNDERMINE RATHER THAN ENHANCE BUSINESS CONFIDENCE. THROUGHOUT THIS PROCESS, HOWEVER, WE SHALL NEED TO WATCH THE WAY DEBATE DEVELOPS IN HONG KONG AND HOW THE ISSUE MIGHT PLAY IN THE BUILD-UP TO THE 1995 ELECTIONS.
5. 'WE WOULD BE GRATEFUL FOR THE VIEWS OF ALL ADDRESSEES ON THIS GAME PLAN AND THE JUDGEMENTS WHICH UNDERLIE IT. WE BELIEVE THAT IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THE LESSONS FOR HANDLING FUTURE JLG AGREEMENTS. IN PARTICULAR, IT IS CLEAR THAT IN ADVANCE OF SIGNIFICANT AGREEMENTS IN THE JLG, THE GROUND WILL HAVE TO BE PREPARED CAREFULLY IN HONG KONG, AND WAYS OF SOUNDING OUT/BRIEFING LEGCO DEVISED. THE MEMBERS OF EXCO WHO ARE ALSO MEMBERS OF LEGCO WILL PRESUMABLY HAVE AN IMPORTANT ROLE HERE. THE CHINESE WILL BE ALL TOO QUICK TO ACCUSE US OF STIRRING UP OPINION IN LEGCO AGAINST JLG AGREEMENTS. BUT IF WE CANNOT MAKE AGREEMENTS REACHED IN THE JLG STICK IN HONG KONG, THE JLG PROCESS ITSELF WILL BE FATALLY WEAKENED. WE LOOK FORWARD IN THIS CONNECTION TO YOUR VIEWS ON HOW TO RESPOND TO ALLEN LEE'S LETTER (YOUR TELNO 3480).
HURD
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CONFIDENTIAL