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Those who support forced repatriation should not be encouraged by the fact that the 51 forcibly returned in 1989 did so without strong resistance. If an attempt was now made to

mo ery large numbers back, Hong Kong would not escape from appalling scenes which would be shown in the world media. The camps would become unmanageable and Hong Kong would be the subject of worldwide condemnation. However much the difference between Hong Kong's own situation and that of the boat people might be argued, the practical reality is that Hong Kong would be accused of adopting double standards.

Hong Kong must now show patience and tolerance, whilst pressing for the early rehabilitation of Vietnam. By use of the carrot, rather than the stick, therefore, there is a good prospect that most can be encouraged to return voluntarily. The grey area category of acquiescent non-volunteers is unlikely to provide an answer and could backfire. Either people volunteer or they do not.

Recent talk of a holding centre can only reduce the number of volunteers, particularly if it is thought to be on United States territory, as it will raise expectations in the camps that transfer to such a centre could lead to resettlement. It may also prompt a new round of departures from Vietnam. Such a solution is fundamentally flawed since it addresses the symptoms not the cause of the problem.

Vietnam, which is already one of the largest rice exporters in the world, has the potential to develop a sound economy. Restoration of relations with the U.S. and the West would revitalize its economy, provided that Vietnam takes action to encourage foreign investment, such as the creation of special economic zones. The U.S. Chambers of Commerce in Hong Kong and elsewhere clearly recognise this and are pressing for a lifting of the trade embargo. Hopefully, in parallel to economic recovery, there will be some political reform, which will also encourage voluntary repatriation.

In the meantime, Hong Kong's self-interest dictates that it should continue to improve camp conditions. The policy of involvement by the Vietnamese boat people themselves is sensible and should be vigorously supported. Recent developments at the huge Whitehead camp are encouraging. Facilities for children, who make up 35% of the camps population, must be a priority. The completion of the Tai A Chau camp in the autumn will also help reduce the over-crowding elsewhere, particularly at Whitehead. Improved conditions in the camps will not need huge additional funds but the Hong Kong community should be willing to make a modest contribution, while the pressure must continue on the U.N. and the West to provide financial support.

The Hong Kong Government's dilemma and the frustrations of Hong Kong people, who face uncertainties over their own future and are unhappy about the fate of Chinese illegal immigrants, are real. In addition, the continuing burden on the Royal Hong Kong Police, the Correctional Services and Immigration Departments, and the Civil Aid Services, who work in the camps under difficult conditions and are already suffering from manpower shortages, must be acknowledged. However, in seeking solutions, we must constantly be alive to the wider issues for Hong Kong, which is, more than any other territory, dependent on its external relations: its trade is more than twice its GDP and the tourism industry is a major contributor to the economy. Hong Kong is currently being promoted and strengthened as an international city. It needs international support more than ever. A policy of mass repatriation by force may undermine all the efforts. Hong Kong must now press for longer term solutions and the U.S. and the West cannot escape from their responsibility for playing the major role in setting a new policy towards Vietnam.

This approach is not born of idealism, but out of Hong Kong's self-interest. Let the Hong Kong community now show restraint and patience. The record on looking after the Vietnamese is a good one; Hong Kong should not ruin it by pursuing a policy which will put at risk the attainment of so many wider goals.

Martin Barrow

c/o The Legislative Council

8 Jackson Road

Hong Kong

September 1990

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