XX
SECOND REPORT FROM
1997. The Treaty period however extends for 50 years after 1997, and Britain retains an obligation to the people of Hong Kong for that period. The second set of assurances set out in paragraph 4.13 above are sought in fulfilment of that continuing obligation.
4.15. A fundamental breach of the Treaty could be expected to result in both an immediate flight and a subsequent longer term exodus of people from Hong Kong. It is not however in our view realistic to suppose that the United Kingdom alone can accommodate so large an influx of people as would be involved. If assurances are to be provided, as we believe they should be, they must therefore involve the international community. Giving evidence on 12 June, Sir David Wilson told us that in what he described as an "Armageddon scenario", there "could quite rightly be... a wider international responsibility". The manner in which these assurances should be arranged within the international community is a subject of considerable difficulty. Sir Geoffrey Howe, on 14 June, said: “In the... last resort situation of events overwhelming the people of Hong Kong, then in those circumstances it is, I think inescapable that the United Kingdom with its special responsibility for the territory would be the country to which they would look for treatment as refugees and we would have to try and discharge that responsibility with the help of others." This in effect offers nothing to Hong Kong BDTCs, other than refugee status. Sir Geoffrey Howe told us that he did not believe that we should try to mobilise international support now since he did not expect that the necessary support would be forthcoming.3 We are conscious of how damaging to confidence and stability in Hong Kong could be the failure of any attempt to obtain specific commitments in advance from other nations. Nonetheless we must demonstrate to Hong Kong Britain's continuing and active commitment to the Territory and its people. Accordingly we recommend that the British Government should take the lead at the earliest opportunity, particularly with our EC partners and immigrant-receiving countries such as Australia, Canada and the USA in establishing the definite guarantees which could be put into place in the years ahead. We believe the accommodation of even several million people from Hong Kong would be quite possible if shared amongst the international community.
4.16. Another category to whom we believe attention should be drawn, are those who might find themselves after 1997 at risk of unlawful arrest or political persecution because of their actions. The possible dangers to such people have been highlighted by the present political repressions within the PRC. Such people must be given immediate asylum by Britain whether or not the Joint Declaration itself is deemed to have been breached.
4.17. The prospect of a home of last resort will not, however, solve the immediate problems of emigration by the skilled and qualified; the first of the areas requiring action mentioned in paragraph 4.13 above. In 1988, 45,000 people emigrated from Hong Kong, and they disproportionately came from professional, administrative and management sectors (25 per cent, compared with 5 per cent for the community as a whole). Between 1981 and 1986 the average figure was about 20,000. We were told that this increase parallels the increase in the number of places available in the principal immigrant-receiving countries (ie, Australia, Canada and USA). The Hong Kong Government estimates that the numbers emigrating in 1989 will be fewer than in 1988 (42,000), but the recent events in China have made it probable that the numbers will escalate in the period up to 1997.
4.18. Many of these emigrants face a cut in their standard of living. They do not expect an improved lifestyle by moving, nor better prospects. They are emigrating because they are afraid of being caught in Hong Kong after 1997 if things go wrong. Some of them, once they have acquired another nationality, return to Hong Kong, knowing that they have an "insurance policy" against that eventuality. But many, having uprooted themselves once, stay in the countries to which they have emigrated. We were told that they would not feel it necessary to emigrate if they had the right of abode elsewhere. Emigration would not cease if right of abode in the UK was generally available “since Hong Kong has historically had a highly mobile population". Nonetheless, many of those who are emigrating because of uncertainty over the future are those whom Hong Kong can least afford to lose. Confidence is also undermined by
Q 899.
* Q 993. 'Q 991.
• Evidence, p 31.
• Ibid.
• Evidence, p 31.