CONFIDENTIAL
TOP COPY Q DIST ?
131
015230
MDHIAN 9184
CONFIDENTIAL
FM HONG KONG
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
TELNO 773
OF 01120OZ MARCH 90
INFO PRIORITY BTC HONG KONG
нко 34014
RECEIVED IN REGISTRY
1 1 MAY 1990
DESK OFFICER
PA
INDEX
REGISTRY
Action Taken
HOLE
YRTELNOS 408 AND 464: U K NATIONALITY PACKAGE: SCMP HOT
1. WE HAVE OBTAINED A COPY OF THE FULL SRH POLL REPORT. THESE SURVEYS ARE CONDUCTED BY A PROFESSIONAL SURVEY FIRM QUARTERLY AND ARE ALWAYS PUBLISHED. WE WILL EXAMINE THE SURVEY METHODOLOGY USED BUT OUR INITIAL IMPRESSION IS THAT THEY ARE REASONABLY SCIENTIFIC IN THEIR SAMPLING AND QUESTIONS. WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING COMMENTS TO
ADD TO OUR TELNO 343.
2. FOR THE SAME REASONS THAT WE WOULD QUESTION THE CORRELATION MADE BY THE SCMP BETWEEN THE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE AND REPORTED REACTION TO THE BRITISH NATIONALITY PACKAGE, WE WOULD NOT/NOT RELATE THE APPARENT REDUCTION IN THOSE INTENDING TO EMIGRATE TO THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE PROPOSED PACKAGE. THE CONCEPT OF 'INTENTION TO EMIGRATE' IS SUFFICIENTLY EPHEMERAL AND OPEN TO INTERPRETATION TO ENABLE A VARIETY OF DIFFERENT CONCLUSIONS TO BE REACHED. WE DO NOT/NOT EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO DRAW ANY CONCLUSIONS ON THE EFFECT OF THE UK NATIONALITY PACKAGE UNTIL WE STUDY ACTUAL EMIGRATION STATISTICS OVER MANY MONTHS FOLLOWING ITS IMPLEMENTATION HERE.
3. WE MUST EMPHASISE THAT IT IS NOT/NOT SENSIBLE TO TRY TO RELATE A BROAD POPULAR SURVEY ON CONFIDENCE (CARRIED OUT IMMEDIATELY AFTER
THE JANUARY MEETING OF THE BLDC POLITICAL STRUCTURE SUB-GROUP IN GUANGZHOU) TO THE IMPACT OF A NATIONALITY PACKAGE LIMITED TO 50,000 HEADS OF HOUSEHOLD IN A POPULATION OF 5.7 MILLION. HOWEVER, WE CAN MAKE THE BULL POINT NOW THAT THERE IS INTENSE INTEREST HERE IN THE UK PACKAGE FROM THOSE WHO BELIEVE THEY STAND ANY CHANCE OF BENEFITING FROM IT. THERE IS NO/NO DOUBT THAT THOSE WHO DO BENEFIT WILL NOT/NOT FEEL THE NEED TO LEAVE HONG KONG IN SEARCH OF A PASSPORT. IF WE GET THE SPREAD RIGHT, WHICH IS OF COURSE OUR KEY AIM, MANY OTHERS WHO DO NOT/NOT PRESENTLY BELIEVE THEY STAND A CHANCE WILL BE PLEASANTLY SURPRISED AND REASSURED. THIS IS BOUND TO
HAVE A POSITIVE KNOCK-ON EFFECT.
WILSON
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CONFIDENTIAL