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These groups account for, in total, over two million of the 2,600,000 strong workforce or 78%. None of these groups has a more than 0.5% chance of success for individuals (column g) but between them, they absorb 4,078 of the 33,300 available places in the first tranche. HKG point out that those selected in each category will, because of the points system, be the most highly skilled and valuable members of the group the multi lingual secretaries, the craftsmen etc, and argue that any smaller allocation would risk being regarded as derisory, and subject to much criticism in Hong Kong and in Britain.
G
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8. It is possible to determine different allocations for the groups in question by altering the "variation factor" the multiplier which is intended to reflect the degree of difficulty in replacing people who emigrate. In HKG's proposed figures, two levels of "variation factor" are used: a factor of 1 for those groups requiring high levels of training and 0.25 for the lesser skilled groups. The distinction is inevitably subjective but HKG's rough rule of thumb was that the lower multiplier should be used for those groups where, in general, replacements might be trained relatively quickly (say within six months). There is nothing magic about the relationship between 1 and 0.25 and different values could be used. If, for example, the variation factor for the lesser skilled groups were reduced to 0.1 the total allocations for the groups sidelined in Annex C would be reduced to less than half HKG's proposal. The table at Annex D contains a rough calculation (based on 30,000 rather than 33,300 places in the first tranche) which demonstrates this.
9.
The choice between these options or other possible variations is ultimately a political one, and will depend on an assessment of the likely damage to be caused by (a) those who will regard the scheme as too elitist and (b) those who are concerned (particularly with a view to the possibility that some recipients will come to the UK) to ensure that citizenship is concentrated on those with a very high level of qualification. Our own assessment is that a variation factor of 0.1 (ie as shown at Annex D) will give a result which fits more closely the purposes of the citizenship scheme and we believe that there is a strong case for making this adjustment. However, before reaching a decision, Ministers will wish to bear in mind not only the views of HKG, and potential critics of the package, but also the effect - if it be considered relevant which a reduction in the number of places for these groups would have on the already slim chances of members of the Garrison securing citizenship under the General Allocation Scheme.
(b) Criteria for allocation of points
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10. Individuals will be selected within occupational groups by a points system. The criteria for the award of points are set out in paragraph 7 of Annex B, with further details in the pages at the back of that Annex. Three warrant particular attention
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