CONFIDENTIAL
B. 5.
The Japanese MFA have been briefed on Mr Maude's visit to China.
It is too early to tell whether the friendly tone adopted by his Chinese interlocutors will be reflected in a better atmosphere for discussions over Hong Kong issues. But the Chinese did appear to recognise the efforts we have made with EC and Western partners for
a relaxation of the Western stance towards China. They have, predictably, now sought to capitalise on the visit by seeking to
step up the pace of bilateral ministerial contacts; in particular
through an early return visit by Mr Maude's host, Vice-Minister
Tian Zengpei. The idea has now been dropped. The next senior
visitor to UK will therefore be Wan Li, President of the National
People's Congress, leading a "Parliamentary" delegation at the
invitation of the British IPU group; the level of Government
involvement has yet to be considered.
China/Iraq
6.
China has aligned itself with with rest of the UN over Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. She has condemned Iraq's action and called for Iraqi withdrawal. She has support Security Council Resolutions 660,
661, 662, 664 and 665. She is implementing SCR 661. But she is hostile to the military build up in the West and only accepted SCR 665 when substantially watered down.
Internal Situation
7. The stalemate in the top Chinese leadership continues,
reflecting an uneasy coalition between those seeking a return to
more reformist policies and conservative ideologues. The leadership is still heavily dependent on the veteran leaders, in particular Deng Xiaoping. A power struggle for succession is likely once they pass from the scene. The military is likely to play a key role in
any such struggle. Although there have been some signs of reformist
voices being raised, in particular by Politburo member Li Ruihuan and in some of the more dynamic coastal provinces, the emphasis on political and ideological orthodoxy remains strong. The overriding preoccupation, following last year's events and the changes in Eastern Europe, is political stability and tight party control.