CONFIDENTIAL
151
133340
MDHIAN 8226
CONFIDENTIAL
FM HONG KONG
TO DESKBY 11090OZ FCO
TELNO 2132
OF 10083OZ JULY 90
INFO DESKBY 11090OZ HKGO LONDON
нко
{ RECEIVED
011/1
10 JUL 1990
DESK OFFICER
INDEX
PA
TOA Q DIST?
Actre
HKGO LONDON PERSONAL FOR YAXLEY
YRTELNO 1288: FAC MEETING: NATIONALITY AND EMIGRATION
NUMBER OF EMIGRANTS
1. OUR PRELIMINARY FORECAST, FIRST MADE IN SEPTEMBER 1989, OF THE NUMBER OF EMIGRANTS LEAVING HONG KONG IN 1990 WAS 55,000. INFORMATION RECEIVED SINCE THEN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FIGURE WOULD BE EXCEEDED AND COULD BE AS HIGH AS 60,000 (OR AN AVERAGE OF 1,100 TO 1,200 PER WEEK). OUR FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED IN EARLY OCTOBER WHEN MORE UP-TO-DATE DATA ARE RECEIVED FROM LOCAL CONSULATES.
2. THE EMIGRATION OF 55,000 TO 60,000 PEOPLE IS THE HIGHEST LEVEL EVER SUSTAINED BY HONG KONG. IT MAY BE COMPARED WITH ABOUT 45,000 EACH YEAR IN 1988 AND 1989, AND 30,000 IN 1987, AGAINST A STABLE HISTORICAL AVERAGE OF ABOUT 20,000 IN THE 1970S AND THE EARLY PART OF 1980S.
3. FOR 1990, THERE ARE TWO MAIN REASONS FOR THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OUR EARLIER AND LATEST FORECASTS. FIRST, IN LATE LAST YEAR AND EARLY THIS YEAR, THE CANADIAN COMMISSION MADE A DETERMINED EFFORT TO CLEAR THE BACKLOG OF APPLICATIONS. THEY EMPLOYED MORE LOCAL
STAFF AND REDEPLOYED SPECIALISTS FROM CANADA. THIS RESULTED IN A SHARP INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF VISAS ISSUED IN 1990, AND, INEVITABLE AN EXPECTEDLY HIGH LEVEL OF DEPARTURE BY THE CLOSE OF
1990. CANADA NOW TAKES UP FIFTY PER CENT OF ALL OUR EMIGRANTS. SECONDLY, THE SINGAPOREAN SCHEME HAS BEGUN TO MAKE AN IMPACT. ALTHOUGH THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE ACTUALLY LEAVING REMAINS LOW COMPARED WITH THE NUMBER OF APPROVALS GIVEN, ABOUT 20 LOCAL FAMILIES ARE LEAVING PER WEEK FOR SINGAPORE UNDER VARIOUS SINGAPOREAN
IMMIGRATION SCHEMES APPLIED TO HONG KONG.
4. FOR 1991 WE EXPECT THE LEVEL OF TOTAL EMIGRATION TO REMAIN AT
55,000 TO 60,000. THE BULK OF EMIGRATION IN 1991 WOULD BE DETERMINED BY VISAS APPROVED THIS YEAR. ASSUMING THAT THERE WILL BE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE IMMIGRATION POLICIES OF THE MAJOR
1
PAGE
CONFIDENTIAL