SECRET FM FCO
SECRET
AMENDED DISTRIBUTION 282017Z
TO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG
TELNO 2253
OF 26170OZ NOVEMBER 90
АКС 062 11..
1990
141346
MDHOAN 2484
Ра
TOP COPY Q DIST?
PERSONAL FOR GOVERNOR FROM PAUL, HKD.
YOUR TELNO 3205: ROYAL NAVAL PRESENCE IN HONG KONG
1.
IT WAS HELPFUL TO HAVE THIS ACCOUNT OF THE PRESENT STATE OF PLAY, AS SEEN FROM YOUR END. ANDREW BURNS HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO GO OVER THE GROUND WITH THE CBF WHEN HE CALLED ON HIM EARLIER THIS MONTH. WE ARE ALL CONCERNED ABOUT THE LACK OF PROGRESS ON
THIS LONG RUNNING SAGA.
2. IN THE EVENT, HOWEVER, WE DECIDED THAT IT MIGHT ON BALANCE BE PREFERABLE TO DEFER ANY HIGH LEVEL APPROACH TO THE MOD UNTIL AFTER WE HAD SEEN THE OUTCOME OF NEXT MONTH'S TALKS. THESE TALKS SHOULD AT LEAST HELP TO CLARIFY THE ISSUES, EVEN IF THEY
FAIL TO ACHIEVE A SOLUTION TO THEM.
3. IT WILL NOT HOWEVER SURPRISE YOU TO LEARN THAT, FROM OUR CONTACTS WITH THE MOD IN RECENT WEEKS, IT IS CLEAR THAT THE FINANCIAL AND RESOURCE CLIMATE HAS WORSENED CONSIDERABLY, AS A RESULT OF THE NEW PRESSURES IMPOSED ON THE MOD BY THE GULF CRISIS. THIS IS GOING TO MAKE AN AGREEMENT ALONG THE LINES YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE. IN THE PRESENT MOOD, THERE SEEMS TO US TO BE A REAL RISK THAT, UNDER THESE PRESSURES, THE MOD MAY DECIDE THAT THEY CAN NO LONGER PROVIDE HONG KONG WITH THE PATROL CRAFT.
: 200
THEL
4 -
WITH THAT PROSPECT IN VIEW, AND WITH ECHOES OF WHAT HAPPENED OVER THE FALKLAND ISLANDS IN MIND, I THINK WE WOULD THEN NEED TO CONSIDER WHAT SORT OF SIGNAL THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE PATROL CRAFT MIGHT SEND TO THE CHINESE ABOUT THE WILLINGNESS OF THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT TO MAINTAIN HONG KONG'S DEFENCE UP TO 1997. AT THAT POINT, AND BEFORE MINISTERS TOOK ANY FINAL DECISIONS, WE WOULD NEED TO CONSULT SIR A DONALD FULLY.
5. IN THE MEANTIME, I HOPE THAT BOTH SIDES WILL BE ABLE TO AVOID GETTING INTO IRREVOCABLY ENTRENCHED POSITIONS IN NEXT MONTH'S TALKS. I HAVE NO DOUBT THAT BOTH SIDES ARE FACING REAL
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