China refrained from taking Hong Kong neither from fear, nor from legal concern (China has always, refused to recognize the legality of Britain's Opium War acquisition), nor from concem over the reactions of third parties, but rather from self-interest in the perpetuation of Hong Kong in its
present role.
China's self-interest in the perpetuation of Hong Kong derives from an age-old dilemma. For centuries China has been socially and politically fragile and hence properly frightened of giving foreigners unimpeded access to Chinese society. On the other hand, China has had no choice but to deal with foreigners. The solution has been to deal with foreigners through an enclave system. While the form of the enclaves has evolved over time-foreign-run customs services, treaty ports, and contemporary Hong Kong being the principal variants-the basic enclave strategy has persisted. Periodically, China has tried isolation, but isolation is always a disaster-either because the foreigners ruthlessly open the door or because China's economy collapses when deprived of foreign technology, trade, capital, and stimulation. The ruthless termination of the foreign concessions and treaty ports other than Hong Kong was an aspect of China's attempts to resolve its problems through isolation.
Since 1978, China has definitively abandoned isolation. Even the current conservative leadership does not propose to close the door. In consequence, China's ancient dilemma has become worse. With tens of thousands of its
citizens abroad, and with trade having risen from $29.3 billion in 1979 to
$111.6 billion in 1989, China's contacts with the outside world have multiplied and will continue to do so. But these contacts have also exposed China to foreign ideas and standards (as Deng says, opening the window lets in flies and mosquitoes), and Chinese Communist society has become more vulnerable. With the worsening of the dilemma, China's need for enclaves has expanded, not contracted. This ensures that Hong Kong will not go the way of Weihaiwei or the old foreign concessions in Shanghai and
elsewhere.
China has in fact responded by enlarging the enclaves. Since Deng gained the helm, China has created numerous other investment zones, thereby broadening the enclave strategy to encompass far larger populations and territory and, more importantly, far greater impact on China's development. The conservative new leadership has cut back some of the special advantages of these zones, but, as with the broader strategy of economic opening, has not reversed course. In fact, the Eighth Five Year Plan is set to be a blueprint for renewed reforms.
China has a powerful interest in Hong Kong, recognizes that interest, repeatedly articulates its interest in the “stability and prosperity” of Hong
China must deal with
foreigners through
enclaves.
Its need for enclaves is
growing.
China is expanding the
enclaves