2003
560
2004
513
2005
475
2006
433
ii) "Worst case scenario"
At the other extreme, if we assume that none of the 390
potential HMOCS members decided to join and that because of
unfavourable economic and political developments or because
the compensation package is viewed as inadequate, all the
younger officers (ie. those below the age of 45) resign
before the hand over, the number of HMOCS officers eligible
for compensation in 1997 might be as few as 170. Assuming that these remaining officers all retired or resigned within
3 years of the hand over, the number receiving compensation
would be:
1997
170
1998
120
1999
80
2000
40
2001
0
iii) "Probable scenario"
The most probable scenario is somewhere between these two
extremes. Assuming that natural wastage among existing officers continued at historic levels up to 1997, that 30% decided to leave in 1997 and that about 40 a year left in
each year thereafter, the number eligible for compensation
would be:
1997
540
1998
378
1999
336
2000
294
2001
252
2002
210
WEDABI/2