COST OF A SCHEME
I
1.
Whatever form the scheme takes, the cost would also depend on a number of other factors, including:
(a) The number of eligible. HMOCS officers
There are currently about 500 HMOCS officers who would be eligible for compensation in 1997 (Leaving aside natural
wastage due to death and resignation from the service before 1997). Another 390 officers, currently serving on contract terms, have the right to become HMOCS members if they so wish. Because there are so many imponderables involved, it is impossible to predict with any accuracy how many HMOCS officers will decide to stay on after 1997. Projections
based on 3 alternative scenarios are set out in Annex A.
(b) Duration of Scheme
We assume that payments will be made over a 9 or 10 year period beginning in 1997. We are under no specific
under the scheme for any
obligation to make payments particular length of time. In principle it would indeed be possible for the scheme to run for a much shorter period. But when the time comes to consult the Chinese it would be difficult to claim that we were being sincere in working for
the smooth transfer of Government in 1997 if the scheme were
to run for say only 3 years. The whole purpose of the scheme is to ensure that HMOCS members remain committed to Hong Kong in the long term and continue to serve out their
careers there.
2. Annex B sets out the costs for (a) a traditional, (b) modified and (c) enhanced modified scheme using the three alternative projections for the number of eligible HMOCS officers described in Annex A. The "best case" assumes that
WEDABI/1
CONFIDENTIAL