now outweighs any economic advantages China might derive, and I, for one, will be very surprised if we even get the Basic Law which was presented to us at the beginning of this year. The effect of such a hard line will certainly be felt right through Hong Kong's economy. And as more and more of our influential establishment kowtows to Beijing, so the general population loses hope. And as I have said before, our biggest problem is going to be a psychological one, namely, that hopelessness breeds despair and saps the will to work, and makes crime seem an easy way out.
The eighth needle points to the rapid retreat of the Foreign Office and our Hong Kong Government in the matter of our future constitutional arrangements. We missed the precious chance in 1987/88 when the 1984 constitutional arrangements were reviewed. In 1984 Government had, in fact, promised to enlarge and diversify the 1984 arrangements for LEGCO, but the 1988 Government reneged on the quite unwarranted basis that no concensus could be obtained This statement was mainly based on the opinions of appointed unofficials who wondered in a patronising way whether our people were ready for democracy. And now it appears as if something similar is happening. For a brief moment there while Mr. Major's new wind was blowing through the Foreign Office it appeared that a little backbone had finally been put into the Foreign Office and via the Foreign Office, into our Government. But this is now fast disappearing and we are facing another quite unacceptable, cynical and hypocritical compromise with the Chinese on the basis that we must comply with the Basic Law, which is nonsense because what we must comply with is the Joint Agreement which states unequivocally that LEGCO will be completed elected by 1997. So now again we are losing precious time.
There are many more needles pointing in different directions on this somewhat peculiar compass I have been describing. You may accuse me of mixed metaphors, but I think you will get the idea. So which way to go? Where is the path through this unexplored country that will get us back to civilisation without us being swept down waterfalls, or drowning in swamps, or being eaten by wild animals while we try and find our way.
So far all I have done is actually what you have asked me to do which is to name the important political and economic issues which Hong Kong will be facing in 1990. What I should do now is sit down and let you ponder on what to do about it all, but that would be a most unusual thing for me to do. In fact, if I were able to just state problems and then keep my mouth shut I would by now be Governor of Hong Kong, or maybe even Foreign Minister of Britain. But unfortunately I have never been able to keep diplomatically silent or keep to that precept which is the Eleventh Commandment for all those who want to get on in the world: "You should always tell the truth, but never the whole truth".
So here in my forthright way (diplomats call it tactless) I will say what everybody is thinking but no-one seems to want to openly mention, namely, that the only real solution to this whole mess is to junk that infamous fudge known as the Joint Declaration of 1984 and become an independent Hong Kong, a city state on the lines of Singapore. Since we are far more free enterprise orientated than Singapore, we would not go in for all that Singaporean balony of patriotism, with its own army, airforce, and navy, but we would hire our defence. And the first people we should ask in are, of course, the Yanks. It might sound a bit expensive but part of the Seventh Fleet stationed here permanently with sufficient aircraft on their carrier so that we wouldn't have to have military traffic on Kai Tak, a few American troops at sensitive Border posts plus the Gurkhas would give us a very fair guarantee of non-interference from across the Border, or even from Taiwan. We don't need help in any other
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