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MDHIAN 3969
AGAINST THIS SCENE OF HOPEFUL YET VOLATILE UNCERTAINTY, WHO WOULD NOT BE A LITTLE CAUTIOUS IN DEFENCE MATTERS QUERY.
I HAVE REFERRED TO UNPREDICTABILITY IN THE PAST BECAUSE IT IS EQUALLY RELEVANT TO THE PRESENT.
IT SEEMS TO ME PARTICULARLY APPROPRIATE TO AVOID THE WHIMS OF FASHION WHEN TACKLING DEFENCE ISSUES. THE SUCCESS OF WESTERN DEFENCE POLICY IN THE PAST 40 YEARS SINCE THE FOUNDATION OF NATO IS ROOTED IN THE CONTINUITY OF POLICY WHICH THE ALLIANCE COLLECTIVELY ACHIEVED. I AM STRUCK BY THE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE SUCCESS OF THIS PERIOD AND THE DEFENCE AND SECURITY FAILURES OF THE INTER-WAR YEARS. IN THE POST WAR PERIOD UNLIKE THE 20S AND 30S - WE LEARNT THE LESSONS OF HISTORY - AND ACCORDINGLY MAY NOT BE DESTINED TO REPEAT THEM. I HOPE THAT WE WILL MANAGE TO SUSTAIN THAT POST WAR ACHIEVEMENT IN THE MORE VOLATILE TIMES WHICH WE HAVE NOW ENTERED.
BUT, EQUALLY, WE MUST NOT FAIL TO ADAPT TO NEW REALITIES AND DEFENCE REQUIREMENTS.
THE DISPOSITIONS SET OUT IN THE WHITE PAPER BRITAINS DEFENCE FOR THE NINETIES ARE BASED ON EXACTLY THAT BLEND OF CAUTION, CONTINUITY AND ADAPTION ON WHICH I LAY STRESS SEMI COL KEEPING BRITAIN PREPARED TO PLAY AN ACTIVE ROLE IN THE NEW SECURITY ISSUES OF EUROPE AND READY, AT THE SAME TIME, TO MEET ALL EVENTUALITIES WITH OUR ALLIES.
WE RECOGNISE THE FACTS THAT:
THE COLD WAR IS OVER,
THE WARSAW PACT NO LONGER EXISTS,
THE COUNTRIES OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND THE BALTIC STATES ARE FREE AND DEMOCRATIC,
DEMOCRACY IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ROOT IN RUSSIA ITSELF,
RUSSIAN TROOPS HAVE WITHDRAWN FROM HUNGRY AND CZECHOSLOVAKIA, AND HAVE A PROGRAMME TO WITHDRAW FROM EASTERN GERMANY AND POLAND (THOUGH THEY REMAIN UNINVITIED IN THE BALTIC STATES),
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NEW ARMS CONTROL TREATIES HAVE BEEN NEGOTIATED WHICH PROMISE MUCH IF WE CAN RATIFY THEM SOON,
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