CONFIDENTIAL
HK B
243 14
CONFIDENTIAL
FM HONG KONG
RECEIVED
22 FEB 1990
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
TELNO 373
OF 31090OZ JANUARY 90
DESK J.
INDEX
Act
24
25
067375 MDHIAN 4555
TOP COPY
Q DIST ?
YOUR TELNO 264: VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE: TAI A CHAU
1. THE TAI A CHAU PROJECT HAS BEEN PLANNED ON A PHASED BASIS AND
THE TENDER DOCUMENTS WILL BE DRAFTED ACCORDINGLY. THIS WILL GIVE US THE OPTION TO DISPENSE WITH THE SECOND PHASE SHOULD IT BECOME APPARENT THAT IT WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. WE SHOULD POINT OUT, HOWEVER, THAT THE COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST PHASE ARE DISPROPORTIONATELY HIGH BECAUSE OF THE NEED TO CONSTRUCT A PIER AND DEVELOP AN EXTENSIVE INFRASTRUCTIVE FOR WATER SUPPLY AND SEWAGE TREATMENT.
THE PATTERN OF ARRIVALS WILL BECOME CLEAR DURING APRIL OR EARLY MAY AND A DECISION ON PHASE 2 CAN BE MADE AT THAT TIME. IF THERE IS A MAJOR INFLUX ON THE NORMAL PATTERN, THEN NEITHER PHASE OF THE TAI A CHAU PROJECT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO US DURING THE PEAK PERIOD FOR ARRIVALS BETWEEN MAY AND JULY. WE SHALL HAVE TO RELY ON THE SPARE CAPACITY IN THE EXISTING CAMPS AND ON TEMPORARY MEASURES UNTIL THE NEW PURPOSE-BUILT ACCOMMODATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
3. WE ARE NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT AVOIDING A MAJOR INFLUX THIS YEAR. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NO MEANS OF PRODUCING AND SUBSTANTIATING ACCURATE ESTIMATES OF ARRIVALS, (APART FROM EXTRAPOLATING FROM PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE) WE THINK IT WOULD BE UNWISE TO MAKE CONTINGENCY PLANS FOR ANYTHING LESS THAN THE 1989 FIGURE. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE BEEN A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN VIETNAM DURING 1989 AND THE DETERRENT MESSAGE OF THE CPA HAS BEEN DILUTED. THE FAILURE OF SC3 HAS WEAKENED FURTHER OUR DETERRENT MESSAGE AND, PERHAPS MOST DAMAGINGLY, HAS GIVEN THE IMPRESSION THAT REPATRIATION HAS STALLED AND THAT A NEW DEADLINE WILL BE ESTABLISHED.
4. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO DRAW CONCLUSIONS FROM THE JANUARY ARRIVAL FIGURES, THE EARLY SIGNS ARE NOT ENCOURAGING. 163 PEOPLE HAVE ARRIVED DURING THE MONTH, WHICH IS 40 PER CENT HIGHER THAN THE FIGURE FOR JANUARY 1989. WE HAVE REPORTS OF AT LEAST ONE MORE BOAT WITH OVER 100 PEOPLE ABOARD WHICH IS ON ITS WAY. THE SAILING SEASON USUALLY BEGINS AFTER TET AND THOSE WHO ARE CONSIDERING LEAVING VIETNAM FOR HONG KONG WILL BE MAKING THEIR DECISIONS SOON. IT IS
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