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067174
MDTTAN 9256
CONDUCT SUBVERSIVE PROPAGANDA. THIS CONSTITUTED AN OPEN
PROVOCATION''.
COMMENT.
3.
DESPITE THESE STATEMENTS, THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT HAVE STILL NOT MADE CLEAR WHAT EXACTLY THEY WILL DO IF THE ''GODDESS OF DEMOCRACY'' STARTS BROADCASTING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY DO NOT YET KNOW THEMSELVES. THE TONE OF THE ATTACK ON TAIWAN, WITH THE REFERENCE TO AN ''OPEN PROVOCATION'', SUGGESTS THAT THEY HOPE THEY CAN PUT PRESSURE ON GOVERNMENTS IN THE REGION TO REFUSE TO ALLOW THE SHIP TO USE THEIR FACILITIES, THUS MAKING THE ENTIRE PROJECT IMPRACTICABLE. THE LATEST INDICATIONS FROM TAIWAN SUGGEST THAT THIS STRATEGY MAY BE SUCCEEDING (THE US EMBASSY HERE ARE CONVINCED THAT THE TAIWAN AUTHORITIES WILL NOT (NOT) ALLOW THE ''GODDESS OF DEMOCRACY' TO USE HARBOUR FACILITIES IN TAIWAN).
4. IF THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT'S STRATEGY FAILS, THEY WILL BE FACED WITH A DIFFICULT SITUATION. THEY CAN OF COURSE TRY TO JAM THE BROADCASTS. HOWEVER, THIS IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT AND FAILS TO ADDRESS THE PROBLEM OF ''FACE' IN THIS OPEN CHALLENGE TO
THEIR AUTHORITY. GIVEN THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT'S CONCERN ABOUT STABILITY, MILITARY OR POLICE ACTION SHOULD CERTAINLY NOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THIS WOULD BE A COURSE OF ACTION THAT THEY WOULD PREFER TO AVOID WITH THE DECISION ON THE RENEWAL OF MFN STATUS STILL
PENDING IN THE US CONGRESS AND IN THE RUN-UP TO THE ASIAN GAMES.
5. I AM COPYING THIS TELELETTER TO N. MOAKES, APA (S), HONG KONG,
G.H. LEICESTER, UKREP JLG, HONG KONG, TO CHANCERY, SINGAPORE, AND TO MS. S. MORTON, RESEARCH DEPARTMENT (FE), F C 0.
H K D REGISTRY, F C O PLEASE PASS TO RESEARCH DEPARTMENT.
S.C. RIORDAN.
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DISTRIBUTION
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