CONFIDENTIAL
010353
MD H
2247
4.
T
OPINION POLLS AND SURVEYS HAVE PAINTED A SOMETIMES ALARMING PICTURE. AN INRASIA POLL FOUND THAT 70 PERCENT OF PEOPLE IN HONG KONG HAD NO CONFIDENCE THAT CHINA WOULD HONOUR THE BASIC LAW. CNTA TELEPHONE POLLS HAVE SHOWN A RISING PERCENTAGE (64 PERCENT IN SEPTEMBER) OF PEOPLE WHO PERCEIVE ''THE FUTURE' TO BE A PROBLEM. SURVEYS CONDUCTED BY PROFESSIONAL BODIES REPORT HIGH PERCENTAGES OF MEMBERS INTENDING TO EMIGRATE: NURSES 90 PERCENT, SURVEYORS 85 PERCENT, ACCOUNTANTS 80 PERCENT, LAWYERS 60 PERCENT, DOCTORS 58 PERCENT.
PERCEPTIONS OF BRITAIN
5. SOME OF THE ISSUES WHICH CAUSED ANTIPATHY TOWARDS BRITAIN IN THE RECENT PAST ARE NOW SEEN TO HAVE BEEN TACKLED IN A MORE POSITIVE MANNER BY HMG AND WE JUDGE THEREFORE THAT FEELINGS WILL HAVE BEEN AMELIORATED SOMEWHAT. ON THE PLUS SIDE ARE A PERCEIVED NE4W TOUGHNESS WITH THE CHINESE, THE REPATRIATION OF VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE AND THE WILLINGNESS TO DO SOMETHING ON BRITISH NATIONALITY (BUT THE LAST ISSUE PRODUCED MIXED REACTIONS). OUTSTANDING POINTS OF ISSUE ARE THE PACE OF CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM AND THE BILL OF RIGHTS: BOTH OF WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BE PURSUED TO THE POINT OF PETITION OR DEMONSTRATION ONLY BY RELATIVELY SMALL GROUPS OF ACTIVISTS. THOSE WHO FEEL THAT THE NATIONALITY PROPOSALS DO NOT GO FAR ENOUGH MAY ALSO EXPRESS THEIR VIEWS.
BRITISH NATIONALITY
6. THERE HAS BEEN NO OPPOSITION TO THE SCHEME PER SE, BUT THERE HAS BEEN CRITICISM VARIOUSLY THAT IT DOES NOT GO FAR ENOUGH, WILL BE DIVISIVE, CATERS ONLY FOR THOSE WHO CAN IN ANY CASE EMIGRATE TO OTHER COUNTRIES AND MAY NOT SUCCEED IN ITS STATED OBJECTIVE. HOWEVER IF THE SCHEME WAS WITHDRAWN OR DEFEATED IN PARLIAMENT THE NEGATIVE EFFECT WOULD BE FAR GREATER. CHINESE CRITICISM OF THE SCHEME WAS UNIVERSALLY DENOUNCED, INDICATING PERHAPS THAT TO HONG KONG PEOPLE THE SCHEME WAS WELCOMED IN AS FAR AS IT WENT, BUT MORE WAS REQUIRED. THOSE WHO STAND TO BENEFIT HAVE NOT PROMINENTLY EXPRESSED VIEWS. MANY HAVE EXPRESSED THE WISH THAT HMG WILL ENCOURAGE OTHER COUNTRIES TO ADOPT SIMILAR MEASURES.
VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE
7. THERE IS WIDESPREAD POPULAR SUPPORT FOR MANDATORY REPATRIATION TOGETHER WITH CONCERN AND SYMPATHY FOR THE SECURITY FORCES WHO ARE TASKED WITH MANNING THE CAMPS AND IMPLEMENTING THE POLICY. THE POSITION OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, ESPECIALLY THE USA, IS CONDEMNED.
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