SECRET/UF EYES A
HKB 020/16
RECEIVED IN REGISTRY
19 MAR 1990
[CHINESE USE OF FORCE AGAINST HONG KONG]
1.
DESK OFFICER
INDEX
This is a useful, if sobering paper. The use by the Chinese of military force against Hong Kong is rightly described as a remote contingency. In all but the most extreme circumstances, the Chinese could bring effective pressure to bear in other than military ways. My own view is that the Chinese would only intervene if:-
(a) There was a complete breakdown in law and order
which the Hong Kong police and the Garrison were unable to control.
or,
(b)
Hong Kong people indulged in actions which the Chinese leadership regarded as so provocative that they felt obliged to intervene. In addition to the examples given in the paper, a move by the legislature, unrestrained by HMG, to declare Hong Kong to be an independent State would fall into that category.
2. I see no case for challenging the longstanding assumption that there can be no effective defence against a serious military attack from China: the lack of contingency plans is understandable.
3.
As regards a political response to a Chinese invasion, we would certainly have to take the matter to the UN, and we could seek to organise economic sanctions and arrange an evacuation. But a Chinese leadership prepared to resort to force to recover Hong Kong would be unlikely to reverse what they had done as a result of such pressures.
A. Johan
- RJ T McLaren
16 March 1990
Cc:
Private Secretary
Mr Gillmore
Mr Fifoot, Legal Advisers
Mr Cooper, Planners
Mr Warren, FED Mr Paul, HKD
SECRET/UK EYES A
Miss Marsden McStimme
Pa. /10/3
M11AA0