VBPS

SECRET UK EYES A

numbers of eligible persons registering as electors shows continued apathy towards the political process. The introduction in 1991 of a mainly elected Legislative Council, which will probably contain a high proportion of outspoken liberals, could, if not adroitly handled, lead to an atmosphere of confrontation against the government.

b.

ation

Worsening world trade conditions or problems in China would affect Hong Kong's economy. Inflation, could provoke sharp public reactions.

unemployment.

C. Services in Hong Kong such as health care and teaching could come under increasing strain because of the emigration of professionals at a time of rising demand for these services.

Ja.

The morale and reliability of the police could be affected as some members of the force make preparations for departure while others may begin to think of forging relations with the communists in order to protect their future careers.

Likely Chinese attitudes and responses to serious unrest in Hong Kong

iv.

The Chinese have the following main objectives concerning Hong Kong:

a. to reimpose sovereignty and prevent any move by Hong Kong which would dilute China's control over the territory beyond the autonomous powers conferred on it in the Joint Declaration;

to gain increased political support from all sectors of opinion;

b.

to counter any political opposition to the Communişt Party and Government of China by groups based in Hong Kong;

c.

a.

to preserve Hong Kong's value to China, which means in practice mainly its commercial and financial role beneficial to China; and hence

e.

to maintain the stability and prosperity of Hong Kong.

DEBAAS

SECRET UK EYES A

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