1
SECRET UK EYES A
HKB 020116
JKC
19/12
*ODBC 1990
CIG
14/12-
Foreign &
Commonwealth
Ofice
Need to cover incidents carrer
3 December 1990 this
S Wightman Esq Assessments Staff Cabinet Office
Dear Scott
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THE THREAT TO HONG KONG
3/12
16
1. Thank you for your letter of 2 November in which you requested comments on some of the topics to be covered in your paper. We have already spoken briefly on the telephone about these, and I have looked at the latest assessment by the Hong Kong LIC of possible threats to the territory's internal security (circulated under J64/6 of 9 August 1990).
2. I do not claim much detailed expertise on Hong Kong's internal scene and expect that HKD will have some points to add and may wish to consult the Hong Kong Government, at least on some aspects. Subject to these qualifications, I offer the following comments:
i. Attitudes of the Hong Kong population to 1997
I attach a copy of Hong Kong's telno 2763 of 12 September which described the popular attitude towards the Chinese leadership as one of resigned mistrust. This seems to me to be founded on uncertainty over the future course of events in China now entering a particularly delicate transitional phase - and over the precise nature of China's future policy towards Hong Kong. Among the better educated sections of the community this uncertainty and mistrust have been reflected in a continued high rate of emigration (estimated to reach 62,000 in 1990).
In the absence of early and substantial indications of a switch to more liberal policies by Peking - which seems on balance unlikely - the rate of emigration of skilled professionals is likely to remain high. As Hong Kong's telegram points out, suspicion of China has been fuelled by its criticism of Hong Kong being used as a "base of subversion", and recent indications of a less confrontational approach by Peking have not greatly affected
DEBAAS
SECRET UK EYES. A