SECRET
SECRET
FM UKREP JLG HONG KONG
TO DESKBY 1908OOZ FCO
TELNO 15
OF 190314Z JANUARY 1990
HICB 012 11
RECEIVED IN REGISTRY
INFO DESKBY 1908OOZ PEKING
24 JAN 1990
DESK OFFICER
INDEX
INFO DESKBY 19080DZ HONGKONG
frm
032555 MDHIAN 3112
OPY
TOP_COPY Q DIST 7
PERSONAL FOR MCLAREN, AUSS FROM GALSWORTHY
PEKING PERSONAL FOR AMBASSADOR
HONG KONG PERSONAL FOR GOVERNOR
AS
YOUR TELNO 51 TO PEKING: CONSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT
1.
IT IS PRIMARILY FOR SIR ALAN DONALD TO PREDICT WHAT THE CHINESE REACTION WOULD BE ACROSS THE BOARD, BUT I HOPE HE WILL NOT MIND IF IN ANSWERING YOUR TEL I STRAY INTO HIS TERRITORY. THESE COMMENTS ARE ADDRESSED TO A SCENARIO WHERE A UNILATERAL BRITISH DECISION STEPS BEYOND THE PARAMETERS LAID DOWN IN THE BASIC LAW: ONE IN WHICH WE STAYED WITHIN THOSE PARAMETERS, THOUGH WITHOUT REACHING AGREEMENT, WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE MANAGEABLE.
2. THE BL IS THE MAJOR STEP WHICH THE CHINESE HAVE TO TAKE TO IMPLEMENT THE JD AND ITS PROMULGATION WILL MARK A WATERSHED IN THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD. A DECISION BY US TO DEPART FROM IT WOULD THEREFORE BE OF A DIFFERENT ORDER FROM OTHER DISAGREEMENTS AND WOULD BE LIKELY TO BE MORE PERMANENT. BECAUSE OF THE NATURE OF THE PRESENT REGIME CHINESE REACTION IS LIKELY TO BE THAT MUCH SHARPER BUT WE BELIEVE THAT IT WOULD HAVE BEEN SHARP EVEN UNDER THE PREVIOUS REGIME.
3.
THE CHINESE REACTION IS LIKELY BOTH TO ADDRESS THE AREA OF CONSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT DIRECTLY AND TO RANGE MORE WIDELY. THE FORMER WE CONSIDER THAT:
ON
THEY WOULD BE OBLIGED TO ANNOUNCE THAT THE BRITISH HAD MADE CONVERGENCE IN 1997 IMPOSSIBLE (UNLESS WE RETREATED TO THEIR FORMULA IN 1995). THEY WOULD ANNOUNCE THAT A LEGISLATURE CONSTITUTED OUTSIDE THE TERMS OF THE BL WOULD BE DISSOLVED IN 1997. THEY HAVE ALREADY HINTED AT THIS:
SINCE IT WOULD PRESUMABLY BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR THEM TO HOLD INSTANT ELECTIONS IN 1997, THEY WOULD BE OBLIGED TO FIND SOME
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