CONFIDENTIAL
Mko 213/21
(10)
155242
MDHIAN 0841
CONFIDENTIAL
FM PEKING
TO IMMEDIATE FCO TELNO 634
OF 150213Z APRIL 89
INFO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG, UKMIS GENEVA, HANOI
YOUR TELNOS 830-831 TO HONG KONG.
VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE: COAST HOPPING.
TOP COPY
1. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE AND POSSIBLE WORSENING OF THIS PROBLEM I CAN APPRECIATE THE NEED FOR US TO BE SEEN TO LEAVE NO STONE UNTURNED IN SUPPORT OF HKG. RAISING THE MATTER IN MINISTERIAL CORRESPONDENCE IS ONE OBVIOUS DEVICE NOT YET TRIED. BUT WE SHOULD NOT BE UNDER ANY DELUSION THAT IT WILL REVOLUTIONISE CHINESE THINKING OR CHANGE THE OBJECTIVE REALITIES WHICH HAVE SHAPED THEIR ATTITUDE SO FAR. THESE INCLUDE:
THEIR STRAINED RELATIONS WITH VIETNAM, WHICH STAND IN THE WAY OF DIRECT PRACTICAL DIALOGUE ON, E.G. REPATRIATION FROM THE MAINLAND.
THE NUMBER OF REFUGEES THEY HAVE ALREADY ABSORBED FROM CHOLON AND THE EFFORT THEY HAVE EXPENDED TO TAKE THEM BACK AFTER ESCAPES TO HONG KONG.
THE REMOTENESS FROM PEKING OF THE AREAS AFFECTED BY COAST HOPPING. IN THE FACE OF THE POWER OF HUMANITARIANISM AND/OR GREED, AND IN A TIME WHEN LOCAL FREEDOM OF INITIATIVE AND EXPRESSION ARE AN IMPORTANT WATCHWORD OF REFORM, IT IS GENUINELY DIFFICULT FOR THE CENTRAL AUTHORITIES TO COMMAND THE OBEDIENCE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS IN THE COASTAL BELT ON A LOCAL MATTER.
2.
FOR ALL THESE REASONS, I SUSPECT A LETTER FROM THE SECRETARY OF STATE WILL BE SEEN BY THE CHINESE LARGELY AS A PROCEDURAL, DEBATING TACTIC. IT MAY BE NONE THE WORSE FOR THAT GIVEN THE SPURIOUS DEBATING POINTS THEY HAVE MADE THEMSELVES OVER THE 1997 ''DEADLINE ETC. BUT WE CANNOT RELY ON ITS PRODUCING ANY FORWARD MOVE IN THE CHINESE POSITION BEYOND WHAT THEY MAY HAVE MADE THEIR MINDS UP TO ALREADY. IN SHORT, IF THE ACTION IS TO BE TAKEN WE SHOULD BE CLEAR IN OUR OWN MINDS THAT IT IS TAKEN
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