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by drawing on the ODA's Contingency Reserve; or

by putting in a bid for additional funds from the Central

Reserve.

A

I recommend that Ministers choose one of these options.

Background

3.

There has been a sharp increase in the number of Vietnamese

boat people arriving in Hong Kong this year. The total so far is

2,065, up 124% over the corresponding period in 1988. Boat people

have traditionally tended to arrive in greatest numbers in the

spring and summer months. If this happens again this year, at a level in line with the trend established so far, there could be an

influx of up to 40,000 boat people by the end of the year. This would impose an enormous additional burden on Hong Kong and would

lead to a major political crisis in the territory.

4.

The financial burden on Hong Kong imposed by the boat people is already substantial. In the Financial Year 1988/89 the cost was

£42 million. The Hong Kong Government estimate that the cost could reach £63 million in the current financial year.

5.

The gravity of the situation is described in Hong Kong telno

1144. The Hong Kong Government have already reached the point where

there is no accommodation immediately available for further

arrivals. The latest influx will oblige them to take urgent

additional measures to accommodate the new arrivals, for which

authorisation from the Finance Committee of the Legislative Council

will be necessary. The Governor has suggested three different

options under which financial support from HMG might be forthcoming:

(a) the provision of emergency temporary accommodation, such

as ferries and barracks. This is expected to cost HK$50 million

(c £4 million) over the period April to August 1989;

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