CONFIDENTIAL
3. We must accept that the gamble has not so far paid off. Though the Vietnamese have been induced to accept back a small number of volunteers for repatriation, the new policy has not been successful as a deterrent. There is no reason to suppose that the adoption of similar policies on a region-wide basis at the forthcoming Geneva Conference will of itself transform the situation.
4.
It is worth asking why Hong Kong's screening policy has not been an effective deterrent. There is no one simple answer. But I think the following are contributory factors:-
5.
(a)
(b)
(c)
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through
Despite all our efforts to get the facts of the new policy across broadcasts and letters to Vietnam and through the Vietnamese authorities - potential boat pople either do not know the facts, choose to ignore them, or do not believe them. Some may think that the June Conference in Geneva is some sort of deadline and that those who reach Hong Kong before it will eventually get resettled.
Hong Kong is under British administration and enjoys the best reputation in the region for humane policies. People do not believe that Hong Kong will resort to pushing off boats. They know that Thailand and Malaysia have done in the past and could well do so again.
The progressive liberalisation of the closed camps in Hong Kong may have sent a confused message to would-be boat people. The Chinese have made this point forcibly to us. They could be right though given
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the need to keep UNHCR and the major resettlement countries on board, I still think that liberalisation was justified.
But the main reason why the new policy has not been an effective deterrent must surely be that the repatriation element in it has no teeth. It will continue to be toothless until non-refugees who have not asked to return to Vietnam are seen to be going back.
6.
The failure of deterrence apart, the major reason why so many boat people succeed in reaching Hong Kong is that they receive help at Chinese ports along the way. Whatever measures the Chinese may have taken to stop this happening in response to our appeals, they have so far had very little effect.
7.
I do not think the Governor is exaggerating the scale of the problem which he and we will face if arrivals continue to increase on anything like the scale predicted in paragraph 4
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