CONFIDENTIAL
017005
MDHIAN 60
BETWEEN THE RESETTLEMENT AND ASEAN COUNTRIES WHEN THE US WAS ISOLATED, THE ASEANS AGREED TO REDRAFT THEIR ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE CUT-OFF DATE TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF AMERICAN CONCERNS. BUT THEY WERE ADAMANT THAT AN EARLY ANNOUNCEMENT WAS ESSENTIAL IN ORDER TO DETER A MASS EXODUS FROM VIETNAM IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE PREPCON AND THE GENEVA CONFERENCE. THEY BRUSHED ASIDE AMERICAN FEARS ABOUT VIETNAM'S REACTION, HAVING, AS THEY SAID, ''SQUARED'' VU KHOAN IN PRIVATE. (VU KHOAN WARNED US PRIVATELY THAT IF THE AMERICANS INSISTED ON THE INCLUSION IN THE ASEAN STATEMENT OF REFERENCES TO THE CPA BEFORE IT WAS ADOPTED, HANOI MIGHT BE FORCED TO DISTANCE ITSELF FROM THE DOCUMENT). MOORE MADE AN OBLIQUE AND MILD REFERENCE TO THE PROBLEMS IN HIS CLOSING REMARKS TO THE PREPCON (WHICH WILL HAVE PASSED MOST DELEGATIONS BY) AND DID NOT USE THE SHARP WARNING WHICH HIS STAFF HAD PREPARED FOR DELIVERY. Vu KHOAN REFERRED DARKLEY TO THE NEED FOR THE CPA TO REMAIN CONFIDENTIAL UNTIL GENEVA.
COMMENT
5. THE PREPCON ITSELF WAS, CLEARLY, A SUCCESS. MOREOVER, COMBINED WITH THE ASEAN DECISION TO ANNOUNCE A CUT-OFF DATE, WHICH IS EXPECTED SHORTLY, IT SHOULD USHER IN THE FINAL PHASE IN THE LONG AND TRAGIC SAGA OF THE VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE. EIGHT MONTHS AFTER HONG KONG INTRODUCED ITS NEW POLICY, SCREENING WILL BECOME THE NORM THROUGHOUT THE ASEAN REGION. FROM NOW ON NOBODY LEAVING VIETNAM
CLANDESTINELY WILL AUTOMATICALLY QUALIFY FOR RESETTLEMENT, A CONSIDERATION WHICH OUGHT, EVENTUALLY, AND WITH EFFECTIVE
REPATRIATION ARRANGEMENTS IN PLACE, TO BRING THE OUTFLOW TO A HALT OR AT LEAST REDUCE IT TO A MANAGEABLE TRICKLE.
6. THE AMERICANS HAVE STILL TO COME TO TERMS WITH THESE DEVELOPMENTS AND ARE EVIDENTLY UNHAPPY. THEY SEEM TO FEAR THAT ASEAN WIDE SCREENING WILL BE IMPLEMENTED BRUTALLY COR NOT AT ALL), THREATEN THE WHOLE FIRST ASYLUM PRINCIPLE AND LEAD TO IRRESISTIBLE PRESSURE FOR FORCIBLE REPATRIATION. THEY WILL NEED CAREFUL HANDLING AND COULD STILL CAUSE DIFFICULTIES. BUT ALL IN ALL THIS MEETING HAS GONE AS WELL AS IT COULD HAVE DONE FROM OUR POINT OF VIEW.
SPRECKLEY
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CONFIDENTIAL