CONFIDENTIAL

135764

MDHIAN 5630

THOUSANDS OF HONG KONG COMPANIES IN FACTORIES ACROSS THE BORDER WHERE LAND YON LABOUR IS PLENTIFUL AND CHEAP. THIS HAS BEEN A MAJOR FACTOR IN MAINTAINING HONG KONG'S MANUFACTURING COMPETITIVENESS. IN FIVE YEARS HONG KONG'S DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO CHINA HAVE RISEN 237 PERCENT AND RE-EXPORTS TO CHINA 238 PERCENT. CHINA AND HONG KONG ARE EACH OTHERS LARGEST TRADING PARTNER. HONG KONG FIRMS HAVE INVESTED SOME

USD 176M IN THE MARKET.

6. SOME OF THE BIG HONG KONG COMPANIES, WITH MANY EGGS IN THE CHINESE BASKET, HAVE BEEN HIT BY THE RECENT EVENTS IN THAT COUNTRY. BUT EVEN FOR THESE THE SITUATION HAS BEEN IMPROVING. GORDON WU'S HOPEWELL HOLDINGS HAVE RESUMED WORK ON THEIR HKD 12BN MOTORWAY FROM HONG KONG TO CANTON (GUANGZHOU) WHILE HE HAS COMMENTED THAT ''CHINA IS NO MORE RISKY THAN HONG KONG. AFTER ALL IF CHINA DOES NOT WORK OUT, HONG KONG WONT EITHER''. THERE IS COMFORT FOR HONG KONG IN THAT

GUANGDONG IS USED TO RUNNING ITS OWN SHOW AND GIVING JUST A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF ITS FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNINGS TO PEKING, AND WILL NOT WANT TO LOSE ITS PRIVILEGED POSITION. YET WITH THE REMOVAL OF GUANGDON'S FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS AND TRADE DIRECTOR ON CORRUPT- ION CHARGES AND THE RUMOURED ELEVATION OF THE GOVERNOR OF THE PROVINCE TO A POSITION ON THE STATE COUNCIL, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT IS INDEED INTENDING TO PULL GUANGDONG BACK UNDER GREATER CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CONTROL. SUCH MOVES ARE BOUND TO KEEP

HONG KONG NERVOUS.

7. CONCLUSION: IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY CLEAR THAT HONG KONG'S ECONOMY HAS NOT BEEN DISRUPTED TO ANY SIGNIFICANT EXTENT BY THE RECENT EVENTS IN CHINA, EVEN IF THE AVERAGE HOTEL OR BOUTIQUE OWNER MIGHT FIND IT HARD TO AGREE. HONG KONG'S IS LARGELY AN EXPORT AND

SERVICES ORIENTED ECONOMY AND IN THE MAIN CONTINUES TO THRIVE. BUT THERE IS ALSO SOME CONSIDERABLE NERVOUSNESS, MANIFESTED IN THE NUMBERS OF THOSE SEEKING TO LEAVE. FOR THE TIME BEING HOWEVER THE ECONOMY IS STRONG AND THE PROSPECTS FOR MUTUALLY ADVANTAGEOUS

CONTINUING AND INCREASING TRADE BETWEEN HONG KONG AND BRITAIN ARE

GOOD.

HEAP

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CONFIDENTIAL

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