had already been accused of giving us too much. If that is true, one hopes its just a bargaining position. However, we must of course assume not only that the report is accurate, but that it is not a bargaining position. Unfortunately, under present circumstances, it has the ring of truth. All the indications are that the present hardline Government really is going backwards to the worst of Mao Tse-tung's times and is so scared of any expression of public opinion that they really will refuse to make any of the very essential alterations in the Basic Law allowing an absolutely independent judiciary and a faster development of democracy in the SAR.
Now, you and I know from negotiating business deals with our Chinese opposite numbers that you can only negotiate if you have some really good bargaining counters, i.e. if you have something that they want. Well now, we do have something that they want. They want a viable Hong Kong to generate lots and lots of foreign exchange for them to help them keep their balance of payments within reasonable bounds, they want a viable Hong Kong to be the locomotive which will pull their 19th Century economy into the 21st century. Hong Kong can only do that in the next ten to twenty years by revamping and building up its infrastructure. We all know we need more highways, we need more railways, we need more port facilities, and above all we need a new airport. The intention is for the present Hong Kong British Government to spend that money and for the private sector to help, thus, especially the new airport may well become a private venture. And here is our biggest bargaining chip: If all our Taipans, including, and especially, the Chinese Taipans recognise the danger of China's present intransigence in the Basic Law negotiations destroying any last vestiges of confidence in the SAR Hong Kong after 1997 and thus leading to a mass exodus of people and money, if they recognise this, then now is the time to quietly go to the Hong Kong and Chinese Governments and tell them that the private sector will not put up one single penny towards any expenditure involving road, rail, port expansion, or airport relocation. The Hong Kong Government can then indicate to the Chinese Government that if the private sector cannot help, such schemes will have to be postponed until after 1997 and the Chinese should then be made aware that after 1997 the money for this type of infrastructure just will not be available in Hong Kong and would have to be paid for by the PRC. I believe that even technically unskilled Communist Cadres could understand that, and I am sure it would change Beijing's minds about the Basic Law negotiations. Obviously this type of bargaining must be done behind closed doors. There should be no publicity.
If no
I am totally convinced that we are nearing a major crisis point. further changes are allowed in the present draft of the Basic Law, and worse, if some changes are made backwards, there will be no stopping the haemorrhage of people and money from Hong Kong. And as I have warned before, China will get a Hong Kong which they will have to support economically rather than getting a Hong Kong which will support them economically.
I have been accused, especially by some of my official Chinese friends, of trying to provoke a confrontation. Nothing of the sort. We are here in a perfectly normal negotiating phase: We want something from them, they want something from us, and what we want is a fair trade, which, like all fair trades, will be in the interests of both sides. You and I know very well that you can't make a deal unless there is value for both sides.
In this case,
We
there certainly is value for both sides. We have to stick to our guns. must make a deal but we must make a deal on fair and reasonable terms because otherwise it is not a deal and that would be the worst of all worlds for everyone concerned: For China, for the Chinese Government, for Hong Kong, for the Hong Kong Government, and especially for us who will then have to find a different place to live and a different place to work.
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