That's one half of the equation, the economic half, the other more important half is the political picture.
I was asked to come here to make a businessman's speech to businessmen, the implication being that I shouldn't be "too political". This, of course, goes back to that old wife's tale that you can divorce business from politics. And that wonderful businessman's defence for not having done anything to prevent disasters, whether that was in Hitler's Germany, Tsarist Russia, Pinochet's Chile, Chiang Kai Shek's China: "Business is business, and politics is politics"! Well, if you still believe that today, then you have no business being a businessman because politics makes or breaks the economy, and it is only when businessmen start taking an active part in politics that economic prosperity results. As businessmen we must always remember that it is the freedom of the individual which guarantees economic freedom, economic prosperity. There has never been an absolute monarchy, a dictatorship, an oligarchy which was economically successful. And don't tell me about the Roman Empire, or Charlemagne, or the Tang and the Ming, all these were built on the misery of their subjects, on slave labour of one kind or another when the majority of lives were short, brutish and miserable, and they all went bankrupt! So I make no excuse for telling you that whether it is the year 1989 in Hong Kong or 1997, or 2047, your business and mine can only prosper, we can only operate, if we have freedom. Not just the freedom for us to operate, but the freedom of the individual, the freedom for everybody to live and work the way he or she chooses, and, just as important, where he or she chooses.
I have also been told to be careful what I say about the present Chinese Government, that attacking them is counter-productive and that confrontation must be avoided. Well, you and I as businessmen who have long operated in China know that when push comes to shove in business negotiations confrontation cannot be avoided. And there is no difference in politics: When push comes to shove in politics when you really need or want something then, in the end, confrontation cannot be avoided. So, with all due respect to those in China, here, and in the U.K., who have told me to be careful what I say, let me tell you that as far as political economics are concerned with this Government in China we are back in the dark ages. All you have to do is read the Chinese press: All the old phrases are back: A rhetoric which is completely divorced from reality. And bit by bit the really red political Cadres are taking over so that again it is now more important to be red than expert and, as before, the reds overflow with arrogance in that they know everything much better than everyone else. And the result will be just as of old, that there will be transport chaos, hitech equipment left to rot, other equipment not working properly because "we can do all the maintenance ourselves", or not being maintained properly because it wasn't thought necessary and too expensive to order the spare parts, etc. etc.. I am sure you are all familiar with that. But even worse there will again be the deliberate walling in of the Central leadership. When everyone is afraid, no proper feedback finds its way upstairs and in the end the leadership is completely out of touch, sitting on a powder keg not allowing any safety valves to take off the pressure, and we get a volatile situation which makes the economic situation even worse. Because then no-one dares to make any decisions since no-one knows how long the present leadership will be around and the next leadership might condemn decisions now taken as criminal acts, so it is better to do nothing. And in that situation of course the lack of understanding at the top extends to us in Hong Kong. I don't think the present leadership in Beijing has any idea just how badly Hong Kong has been affected by recent events.
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