SECRET UK EYES A
Russians might well give practical support ie arms. This could lead to the kind of provocations against which the Republic would react militarily and perhaps the type of
scenario into which senior Commonwealth members such as the UK
might perforce be drawn. Soviet moves in South and East Asia will be constrained by the rapidly emerging influences of India, China and Japan and are very unlikely to affect UK interests materially.
THREAT TO THE UK BASE FROM OOA 2015
19.
The proliferation of ballistic missile capabilities in
the Third World will, if unchecked, lead to a situation where
the United Kingdom could find itself within range of such a
weapon from an unfriendly quarter. It is worth noting in this
context that the distance from London to a part of Libya from which a ballistic missile might be launched is only 1,500 miles. If such a weapon system were deployed, the development
of a CW warhead might be within the capability of certain
Mediterranean countries before the end of the period, but
deployment of a nuclear warhead is less likely.
20. The threat to the UK base (and our European Allies) from international terrorism is unlikely to diminish significantly during the period. It is not realistic to be sanguine about
the prospects for a settlement of the Palestinian issue at
present. The future course of the Islamic fundamentalist movement is unpredictable even if a gradual decline in its
potency were to occur, this could well be accompanied by
various violent manifestations.
anf.1s2
F-9
UK EYES A SECRET