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considerably greater extent than any other. China and Japan will assume the role of principal players on the world stage, and be major influences on their neighbours. Indeed, Japan's political reach, based on economic strength but relatively very modest military muscle, will extend worldwide. The
settlement of the Korean division or at least the creation of
a peaceful modus vivendi (on German lines?) at some point in the timeframe, could well coincide with a substantial region- wide reduction in US military presence. The economic and
political strength of the countries of South East Asia and the Far East, together with their general maturity and sophistication, should endow the area with a remarkable` degree
of stability which augurs well for the United Kingdom's residual security concerns.
SOVIET ACTIVITIES OOA 2015
15. The Soviet leadership is likely to continue fashioning its foreign policy largely with a view to creating a
favourable environment for its overriding priority of domestic
economic and political reform. Having extricated itself from
an untenable position in Afghanistan and at the same time
being closely involved in encouraging the current moves
towards the settlement of conflicts in Cambodia,
Angola/Namibia and to a lesser extent in Ethiopia, it seems unlikely that the USSR will in future so closely identify
with, and give such substantial aid to, Communist-sympathising regimes who find themselves embattled. Indeed, the policy of concentrating so much political, military and economic investment on its so-called "special friends" seems destined
to be severely diluted. Instead, we expect the Russians gradually to widen the scope of their links with Third World
countries to embrace a far greater number of "moderate" and
even decidedly anti-Communist states eg in the Middle East,
ASEAN and Latin America.
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