SECRET
UK EYES A
suggests that such a conflict could be prolonged but the vital political, social and religious interests at stake also
suggest that there may be little constraint in the use of the
highly sophisticated weapon systems available. The more positive developments in the Arab World which have led to the formation of the Arab Maghreb Union, the Arab Co-operation Council and the Gulf Co-operation Council have a good chance of increasing stability within fairly limited areas. Despite the unpredictability of the region such unions will probably
still exist in some form or another into the 21st Century.
10. The United Kingdom's vital interests in the area will be
threatened by renewals of military conflict in the Gulf area and by the actions of maverick states such as Libya (eg against Cyprus, Gibraltar). The growing military
effectiveness of moderate countries such as Saudi Arabia and
Egypt may, however, serve our interests well in terms of
deterring adventures by the more volatile elements in the
region.
11. Africa. The countries of Sub-Saharan Africa are
internally extremely unstable and this condition is unlikely to change in the period under review. Instability arises from
poverty and rapidly increasing population whose growth rate frequently exceeds the potential for economic growth even
under competent adminstration; also from tribal and religious
differences. Nonetheless, in most countries there is a
predominant group whose hold on power is relatively secure. In foreign relations, a mixture of self-interest and military weakness disposes African countries to seek to avoid war with
their neighbours although they may offer assistance to rival
factions. The general pattern, therefore, is of recurrent relatively bloodless coups amongst a ruling elite and continuing insurgency by disaffected minorities who are too
weak too overthrow the government but are too strong to be suppressed. The military capabilities of the various Black
anf.1s2
F-5
UK EYES A SECRET