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SECRET UK EYES A
democratic institutions and assumed greater prosperity lessen the country's nationalistic aspirations.
5. It is probably appropriate to mention here the possible need for the United Kingdom's interests in Antarctica to be underpinned, in the last resort, by a preparedness to employ a military presence, at least nearby. The Falkland Islands are, of course, ideally located to provide such support.
Chile,
6. Best of South America. Despite the painful debt burden carried by so many South American countries, we expect the civilian governments which have taken over from the military to survive (although not without major difficulties in most cases) and become the norm in the Continent. The only country which might, by the end of the period, be in a position to exert some influence outside Latin America is Brazil. in better economic shape than its neighbours, has a good chare of turning once again into a respected liberal dez. .acy.
Both Brazil and Chile will view any resurgence of Argentine military capability with grave disquiet, and a regional arms race is likely to ensue. Brazil, with its burgeoning defence industries and useful export markets, has the potential to become a considerable military power. Developments in the rest of South America will be generally
favourable to UK interests.
7.
Cyprus.
The Government of Cyprus
recognizes that the country gains considerable economic benefit from the SBAS, though there remains a continuing, but so far limited, opposition to the British bases across the local political spectrum. Looking to the future, there are three possible scena:J6:
a.
If there was no agreement between the Greek and
Turkish Cypriot communities and the current "de facto" 2-
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UK EYES A SECRET