SECRET
UK EYES A
while the WEU has potential to develop usefully as a means of
coordinating European military actions 00A, it will remain
secondary to NATO. It is also liable to be completely
overshadowed by the EC if the latter develops an effective
security identity, but until then the WEU does offer an existing forum which in prudence should be fostered.
23. The USA. Though France will retain world-wide interests,
she will be overshadowed by the USA, which will remain both an economic and a military superpower with worldwide interests.
Its military activities will be constrained by budgetary
considerations and there is likely to have been a trimming of
commitments, including the forward basing of men and material.
In the Pacific area, American forces may well have been
withdrawn from the Philippines, Korea and Japan, and US
military projection in the Far East and Indian Ocean regions will depend primarily on maritime and air assets. US governments will continue to take a proprietary interest in events in the Americas, but are likely to be selective in
their application of military power and assistance. American
forces will remain in Europe and the US strategic nuclear guarantee will underpin NATO strategy, but the US will probably continue to see its rivalry with the Soviet Union as essentially world-wide and may look increasingly to its Allies
to share the load.
Appendices:
1. British Military Operations Out of Area Since 1945
(Summary).
2. British Military Operations Out of Area Since 1945 (Graph).
3.
4.
Antarctica.
Probable British Dependent Territories 00A - 2000.
5. Strategic Minerals.
6. Defence Export Market 2000-2015.
anb.1s2
B-13
UK EYES A
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