SECRET
UK EYES A
7. Sub-Saharan Africa.
Poverty will be prevalent in Black
Africa also and the African states will be generally preoccupied with their internal problems, which in some may include significant de-population through famine and AIDS.
Thus in military terms they will present little threat to
anybody but themselves, and in economic terms will need their
markets in the West more than the West will need their
products. South Africa will retain her position as the dominant regional power and may underpin her military strength with CW and nuclear weapons. In these circumstances, the UK is likely to maintain an interest in fostering stability in order to facilitate peaceful change.
8. The Caribbean Basin. This region will be dominated by
the US. Britain's involvement is therefore likely to be
confined basically to discharging the UK's commitments to its
residual dependencies, and with furthering wider strategic
objectives by such means as burden-sharing. Security concerns
seem likely to centre round the problems created by poverty,
political instability and large-scale organised crime. On current trends, the latter may well require a coordinated international security response.
9. S America and the S Atlantic. Burden-sharing and the
existence of UK dependencies will also be considerations in
the UK's security relations with some S American states. In
capability terms, Argentina will probably have developed a
ballistic missile (Condor) capable of bombarding the Falkland
Islands, and both she and Brazil could have developed nuclear warheads (1). The latter has the potential to become a
15
considerable regional power but, the Falklands issue aside, it is unlikely that S American national disputes will be exported
beyond the sub-continent, except perhaps to Antarctica. In this context it is relevant that both Argentina and Chile lay
15JIC (85) 5.
anb.1s2
B-5
UK EYES A SECRET