SECRET
UK EYES A
the capability to react to unforeseen circumstances.
Developments in CFE may require a fundamental re-appraisal of the UK's defence needs. (Paras 4-7).
60.
The Soviet Union is unlikely to seek military confrontation with the UK OOA. China and India will be
significant regionally and Japan will be a dominant economic force. The UK's major strategic concerns 00A will centre on the Gulf as a source of energy for the West and on the
volatile states south and east of the Mediterranean. (Paras
8-10)
61. The strategic objectives of British foreign policy are unlikely to change. They will need to be pursued against a background of residual defence responsibilities, and of
economic interests which will remain world-wide. The alliance and organizational framework within which the UK will have to operate is unlikely to alter fundamentally in OOA terms. of the Allies, the US and France are likely to retain global security interests. (Paras 11-16)
62. The proliferation of advanced weapons systems will increase the risks of conflict 00A, and there will be a
potential BM threat to the UK itself. The British armed
forces are likely to get smaller, while arms reductions are likely to alter the military balance OOA against the Western European powers. Potential tasks for UK forces will fall into three main categories: the promotion of stability, the containment of conflict, and limited war. (Paras 17-28)
THE CONCEPT
63. The promotion of stability may be achieved through MAO, and especially F&C training, and the deployment of operational units. The containment of conflict is likely to include
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UK EYES A SECRET