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UK EYES A
uncertain. China has already exported a missile system with an estimated range of up to 3000 km to Saudi Arabia, but at present it is questionable whether she would be prepared to
conclude a similar contract with other countries. Aside from
India, the technical competence of Third World countries to
produce missiles of such range is currently uncertain, as is their requirement for them. Nevertheless, the risk that such a threat to the UK might be made manifest will be a new factor for consideration in determining UK strategy OOA.
ARMS CONTROL
23. There is likely to be increased pressure to control the proliferation of advanced weapons systems. If the first phase of negotiations now underway between the 23 nations of NATO
and the WP on CFE leads to successful implementation, then the
proposals for subsequent phases involving deeper cuts will be
tabled. Additionally, the negotiations involving the 35 signatory states to the Stockholm Document may well lead to an
extension of the present agreement on CSBM. While there is benefit in the UK seeking arms control agreements which increase security and stability at lower force levels, it will still be necessary (1) to retain a balanced force mix to meet
the UK's full range of national defence requirements which
will include those out of area.
24.
Nevertheless, one consequence of arms control agreements within Europe is liable to be a greater relative diminution of the military forces of the European allies compared with those of the US or Soviet Union, since the latter may retain substantial capabilities outside the geographical scope of the negotiations. Nations OOA will similarly be beyond the
14COS Discussion of Attachment to COSSEC 274/193/3 dated 29 Jun 89 - UK Military Aims in Conventional Arms Control.
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UK EYES A SECRET