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UK EYES A
will have to operate. France currently intends to remain a
nuclear power, regards her nuclear testing area in the Pacific
and space-launch facilities in French Guiana as vital national
interests, and considers that her military activities OOA
enhance her influence and status. of the other European allies, the Netherlands may well retain colonial
responsibilities in the Caribbean, Belgium is likely to have interests in Central Africa, while Italy and Spain will probably seek to play an active rôle in preserving stability
in the Mediterranean area. Notes on relevant European OOA military capabilities are at Annex C.
FORCES FOR CHANGE 2000-2015
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC FACTORS
17.
or
Demographic pressures will call into question the UK's ability to maintain current planned capabilities and force
structures. Although there may be scope for overcoming these forecast demographic shortfalls by exploring alternative
sources of manpower (including the Commonwealth),
increasing the proportion of women in the non-combat elements,
it is questionable whether the cost of maintaining current
establishments will be affordable. Furthermore, if the
perceived bias by the Soviet regime towards a more peaceful co-existence, however chimerical, is sustained, public
pressure for a reduction in the defence effort is likely to increase. In aggregate, these last two factors suggest the probability that Britain's armed forces will contract during the period. Meanwhile, at current rates of production UK oil
reserves seem likely to be exhausted before 2015. A D En
graph illustrating this trend is at Annex D. The Gulf area will therefore probably increase in strategic importance. oil production declines Britain's visible export trade will have to depend increasingly upon manufactured goods, which
As
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