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UK EYES A
force and much would clearly depend on the parties' perceptions if either were to be invoked. Understandings between the UK and various Gulf states will also probably
continue to apply, as may some form of commitment in Belize.
14. Economic Considerations. The DofE estimates that the UK
will import about half its total oil consumption at the
beginning of the period. The Gulf area is therefore liable to remain of great strategic importance. Critical strategic minerals, as defined by the DTI, will continue to come largely from Central and Southern Africa, but judicious stockpiling
and rates of consumption indicate that interruption of these
supplies would have long term rather than immediate
consequences. It may also be possible to obtain greater access to Soviet resources. Further details are at Appendix 5
to Annex B. The pattern of the UK's trade, though currently dominated by its Western partners, implies that it will have to be active in a wide variety of markets. Defence exports form an important proportion of visible trade, and the UK is expected to maintain its share of the market provided present policies are maintained. These considerations combine to
suggest that the UK will have a continuing general economic interest in the preservation of stability in areas containing actual or potential markets, or supplying key raw materials or
resources.
ALLIANCE AND ORGANIZATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS
15. The UK will remain active in varying degrees in the UN, the Commonwealth, the EC, NATO and the WEU. The development of the UN as a factor in international security will depend largely on the relationships between the permanent members of the Security Council and particularly on Soviet willingness to
accept negotiated settlements to regional conflicts. The
Commonwealth should continue to provide a unique entrée for
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UK EYES A SECRET