SECRET UK EYES A
Islam will be a dominating force and there will remain strong elements which will be fundamentally hostile to Western values. In the absence of effective non-proliferation treaties there will probably be increasing regional CBW and nuclear capabilities (") (5) (°). There will thus be a growing potential for violence on a larger scale and over wider areas than today which could have economic repercussions worldwide. Similar military capabilities will exist among the volatile states to the south and east of the Mediterranean, and there will be the potential for BM attacks on some NATO and EC nations and on British territory. This region too will therefore be of high strategic significance. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, British interests are likely to be threatened
only as a consequence of internal conflict and British
military involvement is likely to be confined to the
facilitation of peaceful change. In the Caribbean there is likely to be a growing threat of instability, largely as a
consequence of large-scale organized crime, notably the
narcotics trade. The discharge of Britain's residual
responsibilities and considerations of burden-sharing may thus more frequently require a military response. In the South Atlantic, the situation may be complicated by Argentina's expected acquisition of a BM capability and by Argentina's and Chile's overlapping claims to parts of the British Antarctic territory, if the expected review of the Antarctic Treaty compromises the region's demilitarized status. The disputed areas are illustrated at Appendix 3 to Annex B.
"JIC(85) 14 Nations.
JIC (86) 11 Nations. 'JIC (89) 3
mb.1s2
The Chemical Warfare Capabilities of Third World
The Biological Warfare Capabilities of Third World
Nuclear Weapons Proliferation.
5
UK EYES A
SECRET
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