and the UAE.

SECRET UK EYES A

The UK has continued to avoid too close a public

lignment with US activities in the Region.

THE MEDITERRANEAN

NORTH AFRICA AND THE NEAR EAST

-

11. Defence effort in the region remains targeted at those nations whose stability underlines their importance in an

inherently volatile region and at countries whose pro-Western (or

at least neutral) stances encourage further defence effort.

Although poor economies have traditionally presented few

opportunities for defence sales and LSP in the Maghreb, there are

fresh signs of improvements in our defence relationships Or

opportunities for such - within the region. An increase in ships

visits and the successful conduct of Exercise MINIBUS in Morocco

reflect a steadily developing relationship which may hold some

potential for the development of training areas in the future.

The visit of CNS Algeria to the UK was a welcome initiative and,

taken with the background of social, political and economic

reforms being vigorously pursued by President Chadli and an

increasingly pro-Western attitude, may trigger the realisation of

Algeria's long-anticipated sales potential. More important, her

position as the leading, most influential, member of the Arab

Maghreb Union (AMU) and her long-term economic potential based on

hydrocarbon resources identify Algeria as a nation of future

strategic importance to the West at which appropriate UK defence

interest and resources should be directed.

12.

In contrast, the maverick Libya remains as unpredictable as

ever. The as yet undetermined threat of Libyan chemical weapon development continues to cause concern, as do enhancements to the

offensive capability of the air force. Despite Quadhafi's

reduced public support for terrorism over the year, Libya remains

an unquantifiable thorn in the side of Mediterranean stability

and fully justifies its 3* rating in the COS Strategic Priority

List.

13.

The success of CDS's visit to Egypt this year, and of General Shenaf's return visit to the UK, marked a turning point in the previously cool relationships with this country. As a result, and although still at an early stage in negotiations,

SECRET UK EYES A

5

Share This Page